"THE FILTHY 40"

One cynical way to view Iraq is that, while the US and our allies (and apparently Iraq's Arab neighbors) would welcome a palace coup that takes Saddam out of the picture, there are probably 50 people who are just as evil as he is just waiting to take the reins. Well, close. The White House is indeed hoping somebody offs Saddam before our troops have to go in, but is worried about 40 people whose own war crime records are so bad that they would be unacceptable replacements for Saddam. Not too surprisingly, his sons make the list.

So here's a nasty scenario--the war starts, and within an hour or two the Iraqi government announces that such a coup has taken place. Knowing who the "filthy 40" are, they trot out before the cameras someone who didn't make the list. Iraqi TV may even show a corpse, claiming that it's that of their former leader (it'll be suitably burnt up or otherwise difficult to recognize, and could be the body of one of Saddam's doubles, but it will be impossible to rule out that he's really dead). The alliance is thrown into confusion, with the Arab partners calling especially loudly for an immediate cessation. European support, supposing we even have it, wavers. We stand down, only to get counterattacked unexpectedly. Turns out Saddam was alive the whole time, just using the moment to create fissures in the coalition and slam our troops.

Sweet dreams.