THE JAPAN CARD

Charles Krauthammer says the US should openly endorse and support Japan's entry into the nuclear club. Somewhat relunctantly, I agree. As Krauthammer says, Japan cannot and will not long tolerate so belligerent a nuclear-armed neighbor without needing such weapons for itself. Japan, in fact, will probably have to build up its conventional forces as well, which is something I'm less relunctant to endorse. The ultimate aim here isn't just to make Japan safer, itself a worthy goal, but to frighten China into cooperating in North Korean disarment. China fears a militarily strong Japan.

One angle I haven't seen discussed at all is what this would do to Japan's economy. Japan has existed in a state of economic limbo for over a decade now, and none of the mild reforms it has chosen have done much to improve its economic prospects. In order to create a credible military, Japan will have to purchase much hardware from overseas (mostly the US, to remain compatible with our own forces stationed there), but will also have to pour trillions of yen into its own research, development and fabrication capabilities. Short term this will mean heavy dependence on US manufacturers and spending that goes overseas, but if Japan does build up its own capabilities a military buildup might have the effect of an economic stimulus. Military spending, unlike spending on most social programs, has a vast ripple effect throughout the economy. Corporations rise and fall based on landing or losing contracts, knowledge pools ebb and flow around such contracts, and that translates into economic activity not only within the military sphere but outside it as well. New consumer products arise as spinoffs, and consumers that can afford to buy those new gizmos, and others invent newer gizmos to compete with the military spinoffs. In essence, Japan's military buildup could lead it into a wartime economy without the war--combine it with some smart tax cutting and budget trimming in other areas and Japan's economy could be on the rise before long.

Now that would truly be a nightmare for China: A re-armed Japan with a thriving economy.