ESCALATION

The US is repositioning some heavy bombers to the Pacific to put them within range of the Korean DMZ. The move seems designed to be a deterrent to Pyongyang's increasingly bellicose rhetoric and actions, but I expect that these bombers will have to be used at some point. In fact, I see the North Korean crsis ending in one of three ways--regime collapse in Pyongyang, destabilizing South Korea and parts of China and ending in the "loss" of North Korea's nuclear material; total capitulation on North Korea's part, and the US and the region therefore narrowly escaping a hellish war; or all-out war, and when I say all-out that's exactly what I mean. Terrible loss of life on both sides of the DMZ, and probably ending in a US tactical nuke strike on the million-strong North Korean army. That's about the only way we can save Seoul from a devastating North Korean artillery barrage in the opening minutes of the war.

I'm by no means advocating this or happy about it, but that's how I see things progressing. And by the way, option #2 would probably also result in regime collapse in North Korea and if we aren't quick to act would mean the "loss" of its nuclear material.

UPDATE: Stanley Kurtz has more. Left alone, Iraq will soon be what North Korea already is: A nuclear-armed rogue state interested in arming terrorists and killing Americans. We'll fight one of these two very soon, and we'll probably have to fight the other before long.

UPDATE: It seems we do have at least one non-nuclear way to deal with Kim Jong Il's army.