nice article. i especially like how it layed out the progression from the existing (new) defense pact, step by step to japan becoming anuclear power. most articles just jump right to the bomb (no fooreplay, they).

bp: do you see the prc doing the smart thing vis a vis the dprk, or will they take the current path all the way over the cliff ?

Fine piece, except for the part about Japan being six weeks from developing a bomb. The Japanese never need more than six seconds to develop anything that the human mind can imagine. For things outside that range, they might need six minutes.

Good article Bryan.

To cjm, look at it this way…NK is to the PRC as Bulgaria was to the USSR. If the PRC needs something nasty or provocative done, they’ll get the Norks to do it.

The PRC will make many helpful and positive noises, but they’ll string this issue out for as long as humanly possible. Only two things will get the PRC’s attention: Japan inching toward nucs, or Taiwan doing likewise.

The only other joker in the deck is Kim doing something stupid; a slim hope at best and not to be wished for…that could result in lots of dead glowing bodies.

cpt: something you said all of a sudden makes me wonder if the prc aren’t “fattening up” dear leader to fetch a higher price down the road; i.e. build him up into a real big threat so they can get a real big concession for taking him out. just a thought.

Well done. Further articles for you to consider:

1) How Nakasone/Reagan and Koizumi/Bush are in many ways one very long period for the Japan-U.S. alliance. Nothing being done now wasn’t plotted then. Also, Americans often don’t understand the important role Japan played in pressuring the Soviet Union. See an oral history conducted with James Auer for hints. 2) The ineptitude (that is polite, I’d use another word but it is morning and I was hoping to have a nice, happy day, not work myself all up) of the Clinton period. China became emboldened, and by proxy North Korea, because Clinton/Albright/Carter emboldened them. A nice in here is the dramatic resignation of Amb. Mondale. Hint: it has something to do with the Senkaku islands. Hint 2: Acheson-like. 3) Why is public opinion now able to consider questions like article nine? One cannot underestimate the importance of the families of the victims of Japanese kidnapped by North Korea, they are articulate, down to earth, have common sense forged by tragedy, and are on the tube 24/7. America, especially Armitage and I think also Brownback amongst others have been very supportive of them. On that note Wolfowitz and Armitage are two of many involved back in the Nakasone/Reagan era and now. Shinzo Abe is also a big player. A note: of course more important than public opinion are electoral results. The fall of the communists and socialists can be directly traced to our family members going public.

Again good article. You can only do so much in an article. But try to study the historical lines that go back much further inthe relationship. You can go back all the way to the fights between MacArthur(Reagan-Bush) and Acheson(Carter-Clinton) if you want to. But Reagan/Nakasone is a good place to get started.

Yama-arashi

Thank you everyone for your compliments. Taking comments in reverse order, I’m a big fan of MacArthur, Reagan, Thatcher and Nakasone, not so much of a fan of Clinton, Acheson, et al. I think the Japanese tend to get overlooked as a staunch US ally, primarily because Japan isn’t in Europe. If it were, Japan would be seen as an equal to the UK and would be part of the Anglosphere (at least in terms of its outlook on the world). Too many of us, especially those on the left, just ignore Japan’s contributions to the Cold War win and to the current state of the war on caliphascism and the Nork business. All of that is only natural given our national heritage, but it’s still a shame.

As for what the PRC will do, it’s still anyone’s guess. Centralized unelected governments tend to do badly at foreign policy, and they tend to make colossal errors that elected governments tend to avoid. They believe in their own omnipotence, and that leads them into trouble. I don’t see the Chinese government acting responsibly until they have no other choice, and the cards the US/Japan alliance is playing now will remove the PRC’s options step by step. Once the PRC decides to act, though, it can move decisively. The main wild card remains Kim Jong-Il. Is he willing to incinerate Seoul if he thinks it will help him maintain power?

One other thing. I probably was off on the six week estimate. Some experts cite that timescale, but others (including ones who have decades of experience in the field) believe that Japan could produce nuclear weapons much faster—on the order of a week or less. The main barrier, then, to a nuclear Japan is a choice. Japan would have to have a compelling reason to build the descendant of the weapons that destroyed two of its cities. North Korea in possession of nukes and the missiles to launch them would probably be compelling enough. That is something for the PRC to think about.

Do you remember the spy plane forced down by the prc several years ago? Bush’s first term, right? What was that all about in the scheme of things? The prc asserting it’s authority? With the EU planning on siding with China (by selling them weapons) to “balance” the US and the degeneration of NATO, do you see a new alignment in the works or has it already happened?