Supposing US-Coalition forces prevail in all four of the currently contested territories, the Middle East will tilt heavily toward the West. Islamicist terrorism will have been dealt a grave series of defeats. Overland supply routes between terror states will become increasingly difficult to maintain since they will now cross US-allied states, but both Iran and Syria retain access to the sea, so the Proliferation Security Initiative and Caspian Guard alliances will remain vital to curbing their weapons traffic. Democracies will take root in Afghanistan and Iraq, perhaps persuading other regional states to begin transitioning peacefully toward democratic self-government. Iran, Syria, Lebanon and the PA will find themselves isolated from each other geographically and from the rest of the region ideologically.

Iran's pursuit of nuclear weapons remains the greatest threat to regional peace. With such weapons, Iran can intimidate its neighbors into separating themselves from the US and over a short period of time establish itself as a regional hegemon. It will also be able to threaten Israel and all US forces in the region. Its client terrorist groups may gain access to nuclear weaponry, creating an untenable situation for the United States and its allies.